The Oscars have been around for nearly a hundred years, and with that much time and prestige, comes lots and lots of mystery. It is understandable that people want to know the inner workings of the entertainment industry, and better yet, the truths of certain moments that are still widely debated to this day. Some are repeated, and thus reinforced, conspiracy theories, and some are rooted in statistical analysis. But either way, it's just fun to speculate on a world that so many of us will never get to peek into. 

Perhaps not technically a myth, but one cannot talk about Oscars theories without mentioning Marisa Tomei’s Best Supporting Actress Oscar for My Cousin Vinny (1992). She won for her role as Mona Lisa Vito, the girlfriend of Joe Pesci’s character, who plays an unexpected but crucial role in a murder trial.The theory, constructed by film critic Rex Reed, goes as such: Tomei’s name was mistakenly announced by presenter Jack Palance, and the Academy was too embarrassed to correct the mistake. But, sorry to disappoint, the theory is false. Both Academy officials and auditors from PricewaterhouseCoopers, the accounting firm that counts Oscar votes, have said that Tomei is, in fact, the rightful winner. 

The next theory takes us forward in time, to 2005, a time of flip phones, Juicy Couture, and iPods. But over at the Academy Awards, something was brewing. When the winner for Best Picture was announced, it was… Crash? Genuine shock ran through the audience, even Jack Nicholson, who was presenting, was caught mouthing “woah.” The winner was heavily favored to be Brokeback Mountain, which had the Golden Globe, BAFTA, PGA, WGA, and DGA awards to back it up, as well as box office success. Not only was it baffling, it was also deeply upsetting. Brokeback Mountain was a queer love story, while Crash would go on to be called “the worst film of the decade,” by cultural critic Ta-Nehisi Coates.

The most popular theory, or really explanation, is that the older, conservative Academy voters were uncomfortable with the film’s queerness. Another theory is that Crash’s setting of Los Angeles created a slight bias, as most voters are based in the city. Either way, this theory is widely accepted to be true, and personally, I agree.

Getting into more general territory, the theory is that some Academy Awards are actually retroactive pity wins, awarded to compensate for past snubs. The voters feel guilty or regretful, so they give the Oscar to a later project, which is usually less deserving. The theory points to Al Pacino’s Best Actor win for Scent of a Woman (1992) (making up for The Godfather, Dog Day Afternoon, and/or Scarface), Martin Scorsese’s Best Director win for The Departed (2006) (for Raging Bull, Goodfellas, and Taxi Driver), Denzel Washington’s Best Actor win for Training Day (2001) (for Malcolm X in 1992), and Renee Zellweger’s Best Actress win for Judy (2019) (for Chicago in 2002, and Cold Mountain in 2003). The most convincing, and most widely accepted as confirmation of this theory, is Leonardo DiCaprio’s Best Actor win for The Revenant (2015) (for The Wolf of Wall Street, The Aviator, and Titanic). All of these rattled off titles to say, this theory is most likely true, though I doubt the Academy will ever confirm or deny it.

The final two myths I will present are unavoidable; these terms are mentioned in almost every single article or prediction or conversation surrounding the Academy Awards. They even have their own Wikipedia pages that, though short, attempt to demystify them. In my attempt to find final answers, I researched the Best Picture winners from 2000 to present day, including this year’s winner Anora.

The second to last is the theory that films released in the latter half of the year have a better chance of winning. This time of the year, spanning from October to December, is often referred to as ‘Oscar Season.’ Of the past 25 winners, 15 were released within the aforementioned time frame. That’s 60% of the winners! Annette Bourdeau, a journalist, wrote in a 2010 article for Moviefone, explained the strategy, saying, that this window is “just in time to qualify for the 2010 cut-off, but not too early to slip from the Academy voters' memories when it comes time to decide which movies will get those coveted nominations.” The statistics combined with Bourdeau’s explanation seems to validate the theory of ‘Oscar Season’ as true. 

The final theory is about ‘Oscar Bait,’ which are films that are deliberately crafted to win Academy Awards. They often lean on the more dramatic, tragic side, with genres such as biopics, actor transformation, and heavy subject matter. Some past winners that are pointed to when this is brought up are: The King’s Speech (2010), The Theory of Everything (2014), and Green Book (2018). On the other hand, there are some clear cases of Oscar Bait that have failed to secure the same success as the aforementioned films: Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close (2011), J. Edgar (2011), and The Danish Girl (2015). Diving into the statistics, roughly 10 of the 25 Best Picture winners are Oscar Bait, which is about 40%. In a 2012 article for Slate, titled ‘Baiters Gonna Bait’, S.T. VanAirsdale writes, “as the oldest surviving tradition connecting Hollywood to its audience, Oscar bait is all the movies have left to insulate them from the dull, encroaching disposability of the culture around us. The only empty foolishness I can see is to not enjoy it—to not cherish it—while we still can.” All of this to say, Oscar Bait is pretty widely accepted to be true.

The Academy Awards, as they come up on their hundredth year, have become more than just a ceremony for cinema. They are a cultural phenomenon that sparks intrigue, speculation, and the occasional conspiracy theory. Ranging all the way from supposed voting mistakes to studio strategies, the debates help the Oscars to maintain their historical allure among both the film industry elites and mass audiences alike. But the truth is that the Oscars, like any major institution, are influenced by countless factors, both visible and unseen, many of which we will never know. But every year, new discourse emerges, and the audience is yet again roped in for another year of myths and theories. It will never get old.